Abstract
This study assesses the credibility of corporate decarbonisation targets by comparing target-based pathways with recent emissions trends and capital-expenditure (CapEx)-based projections across eight climate-critical sectors: airlines, aluminium, automobiles, cement, electricity, oil and gas, shipping, and steel. The analysis combines company disclosures with a novel dataset estimating emissions implied by current and planned investments, benchmarked against the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario. This white paper was developed as a collaboration between Asset Impact and Scientific Portfolio bringing together asset-level emissions intelligence and portfolio alignment research.
The findings point to a clear ambition-credibility gap. While corporate targets often align on paper with scenario-consistent pathways, and more ambitious targets are associated with faster decarbonisation, they appear highly optimistic relative to both recent performance and the emissions implied by CapEx plans. This gap is most evident in absolute emissions, where reductions in carbon intensity are frequently offset by stable or growing production, limiting the real-world climate impact of target achievement.
Key takeaways
- Corporate emissions targets often resemble net-zero-aligned pathways, but they are significantly more ambitious than what recent historical trends and CapEx-based projections suggest is currently being delivered.
- The ambition-credibility gap is widest in absolute emissions: many companies cut carbon intensity while maintaining or expanding output, constraining the aggregate climate impact. Misalignment is most acute in steel, oil and gas, and shipping, while electricity and automobiles show partial convergence with scenario pathways.
- For investors, effective stewardship should be anchored in CapEx plans. For regulators, this underscores the need for standardised disclosure of historical intensity trends and sector-specific physical indicators.
Authors
